At least until March, when the tariff hike imposed on imports by the United States government was still being developed — or was merely a threat — and which, since the first week of April, has caused global chaos across all sectors.
In the first quarter, 155.6 thousand passenger cars, light commercial vehicles, and heavy vehicles were exported from Brazil to other countries. This volume is 40.6% higher than in the same period last year. In March, 38.9 thousand vehicles were sold abroad, 19% less than in the previous month.
“But it’s worth noting that February was above the curve,” pointed out Márcio de Lima Leite, president of Anfavea, on Tuesday, the 8th. He once again attributed the growth in shipments this year mainly to strong demand from Argentina.
As the main destination for Brazilian production, the Argentine market absorbed 67.6 thousand units in the first three months of 2025 — 120% more than in the same period of 2024, and 43.5% of all vehicles exported by the Brazilian industry.
Despite celebrating the strong increase in exports, Leite emphasizes that this growth has not prevented the decline in market share of Brazilian vehicles in Latin American markets in recent years.
He cites the influx of Chinese products as one of the obstacles and, worse, anticipates a scenario of even greater difficulties that the U.S. tariff hike could trigger.
He particularly highlights Mexico as an example — last year, Mexico exported 3.2 million vehicles to the United States, accounting for 76% of its total foreign sales. As a result of the new U.S. trade policy, a portion of the production from Mexico’s 37 factories may be redirected to meet domestic U.S. demand.
Mexico will naturally look for alternatives to offload the vehicles it manufactures in order to reduce idle capacity. It is natural, in Leite’s view, that the country will focus on Latin America, “on countries and trade blocs with which it has free trade agreements, such as Mercosur and Brazil,” he adds.
In addition to potentially intensifying competition for consumers who currently buy Brazilian-made cars and commercial vehicles, the Mexican industry could also influence investment decisions planned for product development and manufacturing at Brazilian operations of several automakers — since Mexico’s installed production capacity could meet demand.
Leite also says it’s still too early to assess the full impact of these changes, which may start to unfold in the coming months. “What is certain is that investments [in Brazil] will be impacted in some way.”
Source: Auto Indústria
